Only 19% Chance Bitcoin Price Breaches $10,000 by Q2 2019

https://www.ccn.com/only-19-chance-bitcoin-price-breaches-10000-by-june-2019-traders/


invest in bitcoin



A drop in the bitcoin price’s daily moves has lowered the market’s expectations of reclaiming a five-figure valuation anytime soon.

Options Traders Not Bullish on Bitcoin

Skew — a crypto analysis blog authored by two London-based derivative traders — claimed that bitcoin has only a 19 percent chance of breaching the $10,000-mark by June 2019. The report rested their analysis on the expected outcomes of bitcoin futures that are expiring by the third week of the last Q3 month, explaining that the volatility embedded in the price of these crypto options has come down enormously, as CCN has previously reported.

bitcoin price
BTC/USD | Coinbase | Source: TradingView

Uncertainty in an options market traditionally pushes the odds of an outcome. If the volatility of an underlying asset increases, it allows speculators to achieve their options targets before the contract expiration date. Therefore, higher volatility translates into a more significant price of an option. The year-long volatility meltdown in the bitcoin options market threatens to spread into the next year, with the asset currently moving only 1.5 percent on average per day. It ultimately has led options investors to reduce their bullish probabilities of reaching $10,000 in the mid-term.

“Investors are now expecting the current period of calm will extend well into next year,” the report explained. “Prices of bitcoin options expiring in June 2019 have come down significantly – in particular the upside strikes. The market assigns a 19 percent probability of bitcoin being above $10,000 by end of June next year versus 27 percent at the start of October.”

Calls Sold during October Rally

Skew found that investors’ expectations from their bitcoin options were relatively higher in October than in any month this year. The month saw the digital currency rising unexpectedly during the mid sessions, a rally later credited to the fall of a so-called stablecoin tether. As a result, the price of options — or implied volatility — surged, leading to many investors exiting profitable positions before the expiry date.

bitcoin price
XBTUSD price candles vs volumes | SOURCE: SKEW BLOG

“The ratio of option buyers to sellers has been on average 84 percent with four occurrences below 50 percent,” Skew said. October is one such month.

“The sell-off in vol is interesting in the light of the coming catalysts in Q1 next year (bitcoin 10 years anniversary, CBOE, ETFs approval by the SEC, institutional inflows with Bakkt & other exchange ventures starting operations). The 29Mar19 $10,000 call costs 125 USD per bitcoin option, less than 2 percent of current spot,” the blog added.

At the same time, another call has a 4 percent probability of bitcoin being above $20,000 by Q2 2019.

Featured Image from Shutterstock

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Bull Call: Novogratz Says Bitcoin Will See Record Highs in 2019

https://www.ccn.com/bull-call-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-see-record-highs-in-2019/


Mike Novogratz Bitcoin price



Mike Novogratz, the CEO of crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital, predicts that bitcoin will break out of its 2018 doldrums and soar to $20,000 in 2019 — fueled by a spike in institutional investments.

The former Goldman Sachs investment banker says institutional “FOMO” (fear of missing out) will drive the market up over the coming months as cryptocurrency assets gain more mainstream acceptance and traditional finance players take the leap into crypto.

Year-End Bitcoin Price Target: $8,800-$9,000

“Bitcoin has to take out $6,800, and after that we could end the year at $8,800 to 9,000,” Novogratz told Financial News.

“By the end of the first quarter [of 2019], we will take out $10,000. And after that, we will go back to new highs — to $20,000 or more.”

This past summer was a bloodbath for cryptocurrencies, which were hamstrung by a slump the market could not shake since the beginning of the year. It was a humbling anti-climax for bitcoin, whose prices rocketed to almost $20,000 in December 2017.

Despite the recent downswing, the industry scored major street cred after Harvard, Yale, and Stanford University announced that their multi-billion-dollar endowments had invested in crypto. MIT, the University of North Carolina, and Dartmouth also jumped on the bandwagon, as CCN has reported. The combined endowments of the six universities top a staggering $108 billion.

While the universities’ allocation to crypto is reportedly small, analysts say the move will trigger a chain reaction among other big-name institutional investors, such as pension funds.

Because Wall Street and traditional finance giants tend to copy each other, Mike Novogratz and other experts say it’s only a matter of time before the herd mentality takes over, opening the floodgates for other institutional investors to jump into crypto.

“There’s going to be a case of institutional FOMO [fear of missing out], just like there was in retail,” Novogratz predicted.

Regulation Will Legitimize and Boost Crypto

While the crypto ecosystem prides itself on being decentralized and — according to some — unregulated, Novogratz has repeatedly said the market will actually benefit from some formal regulation.

The former hedge fund manager says regulation will push prices up by legitimizing the industry and ridding it of scam artists.

As CCN reported, BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — has slowly started embracing crypto, but warned that it would not launch a bitcoin ETF until the industry becomes “legitimate,” said CEO Larry Fink.

“It will ultimately have to be backed by a government,” Fink said. “I don’t sense that any government will allow that unless they have a sense of where that money’s going.”

Despite the recent bear market, Mike Novogratz believes the long-term outlook for crypto is off-the-charts.

Novogratz said an impetus for the upcoming rally is that major institutional players like Goldman Sachs and ICE (Intercontinental Exchange Inc.) — the owner of the New York Stock Exchange — have begun building financial frameworks to facilitate the adoption of crypto.

“It’s a bull market in institutions building the infrastructure needed for real-money investors to start investing in this space,” Novogratz told CNBC in September 2018 (video above). “Three to six months from now, there will be an ‘all-clear’ sign for people — big institutions and pension [funds] — to start investing.”

Featured Image from Bloomberg/YouTube

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Encana founder Gwyn Morgan blames ‘disastrous’ Trudeau policies for Newfield deal, shift to U.S. focus

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/encana-founder-blames-trudeau-for-newfield-deal-u-s-focus

Encana Corp.’s founder and former Chief Executive Officer Gwyn Morgan said he’s disappointed by the driller’s US$5.5 billion purchase of Newfield Exploration Co., which moves focus to the U.S. and dashes his hopes that the company would represent Canada on the world stage.

Morgan, who named the oil and gas producer Encana to evoke “Energy Canada,” blames the move on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s environmental policies, which he has said are making the country irrelevant in the global energy industry. The Newfield deal extends Encana’s reach into the shale fields of Oklahoma. It also moves the company toward what current CEO Doug Suttles called a “headquarter-less model,” with operations controlled from offices near Houston, Suttles’ home city of Denver and in the company’s official base of Calgary.

“I’m deeply saddened that, as a result of the disastrous policies of the Trudeau government, what was once the largest Canadian-headquartered energy producer now sees both its CEO and the core of its asset base located in the U.S.,” Morgan, who served as Encana’s CEO from 2002 to 2005, said in an emailed statement Friday to BNN Bloomberg television.

Morgan said he had envisioned that “Canada should have an energy company that stood among the world’s biggest and best.”


Encana founder and former CEO Gwyn Morgan in 2012.

Peter J. Thompson/National Post files

Encana declined to respond to Morgan’s comments.

Canada’s Department of Natural Resources responded that Trudeau’s administration has done more to support the energy industry and get its resources to market in his three years in power than the rival Conservatives did in a decade. Spokeswoman Vanessa Adams said in an emailed statement that Canada is “one of the world’s most attractive destinations for investment in sustainable natural resources development” and pointed to LNG Canada’s decision to proceed with a US$31 billion facility last month as evidence.

Encana’s Newfield deal “does not change the fact that Canada is a great place to do business,” Adams said.

–With assistance from Theophilos Argitis.

Bloomberg.com

Stronach battle widens as brother joins fray to sue sister

https://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/stronach-battle-widens-as-brother-joins-fray-to-sue-sister

The family feud that’s tearing apart one of Canada’s richest families is getting nastier.

Former Magna International Inc. Chief Executive Officer Belinda Stronach — already the target of a $520 million lawsuit filed by her billionaire father Frank Stronach — is now being sued by her brother, Andrew. He says he’s lost trust in Belinda and wants her removed from a family trust and replaced by his father.

The suit claims Belinda and trustees “have undertaken a number of improvident and costly investments that have resulted in significant losses.” As a result, “the Stronach Group now finds itself in a liquidity crisis and is actively attempting to sell off valuable real estate and other assets.”

Andrew Stronach’s lawsuit, filed Nov. 1 in Toronto, is the latest twist in an increasingly bitter dispute that erupted after Frank Stronach left Canada in 2013 for a brief foray into politics in his native Austria — handing control over a key trust to his daughter, now 52, and trustees such as Alon Ossip, a former Magna executive.

Since November 2013, the lawsuit says, Belinda Stronach has controlled various trusts and companies that form the Stronach Group and hold most of the wealth created by the Magna founder. Andrew, whom the lawsuit says “has dedicated his life to agricultural pursuits,” owns 23 per cent of the Stronach Group through his own trust.

This year, as the dispute intensified, Andrew made numerous attempts to obtain “a proper accounting” for the trust — such as the three most recent financial statements. “To date, Andrew’s proper and reasonable requests for information have been ignored, or only partially answered after lengthy delays and following repeated requests for disclosure,” according to the lawsuit filed with the Ontario Superior Court.

‘Complete breakdown’

As a result of Belinda’s conduct, “there has been a complete breakdown in trust and confidence” between Andrew, his parents and the so-called “Belinda trustees,” according to the lawsuit. “Andrew has no confidence in the willingness or ability of the Belinda trustees to discharge properly, or at all, their duties as trustees.”

No statement of defence against either lawsuit has yet been filed.

“The filing on behalf of my brother is an extension of my father’s legal pursuit against me and my children, and the allegations remain just as untrue,” Belinda Stronach said in a statement Monday. “We will be responding formally in due course. It saddens me greatly that we have reached this juncture in our family.”

Paul Deegan, a spokesman for Ossip, called the claims “wholly without merit. Mr. Stronach and his lawyers have been provided with detailed financials of the trusts and subsidiary corporations. They have also been offered access repeatedly to key individuals in the organization to answer any questions and provide additional information. This is a Stronach family dispute that should be resolved by the family.”

In the original suit, Frank Stronach, 86, claims Belinda is starving his grass-fed-cattle farm of financing, selling off assets over his objections while using company funds to bankroll an extravagant lifestyle of parties, vacations and limousine rides.

Magna origins

Frank Stronach, who built Magna into a global auto-parts giant from a one-man shop, and his wife, Elfriede, say their relationship with their daughter has suffered a “complete breakdown.” The lawsuit against her is a “last resort” after trying for 20 months to find a settlement, according to a 73-page statement of claim filed in a Toronto court on Oct. 1.

The couple is seeking $520 million in compensation from Belinda, Ossip and her two adult children, Nicole and Frank Walker, whose father Don Walker is the current CEO of Magna. They want Belinda and Ossip removed from the management of various family companies and trusts.

Key to the lawsuit are what Frank and his wife say were “covert” and “unlawful” actions to appropriate family assets from at least 2011 until November 2016 — when the suit says Belinda and Ossip took the view that Frank was no longer in control of the family empire.

“Belinda and Alon have asserted control over the Stronach Group in an oppressive manner and have taken steps to shut the rest of the Stronach family out of the family’s business,” Frank says in the suit.

‘Belinda and Alon have asserted control over the Stronach Group in an oppressive manner and have taken steps to shut the rest of the Stronach family out,’ Frank said in his suit

Hormone-free

Frank Stronach’s post-Magna life has included a stint as a member of parliament in his native Austria from late 2013 to early 2014, the development of Adena Farms, a Florida-based agricultural business dedicated to producing hormone-free, grass-fed beef, and a golf and country club in Florida that included restaurants serving all-natural foods. Stronach is worth about $1.9 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

After demanding that Frank “take immediate steps to rein in or terminate” expenditures associated with Adena and other ventures, Belinda and Ossip moved to “impair, undermine and dismantle” the agricultural businesses — cutting off funding, cancelling leases and laying off employees, according to the Oct. 1 suit. As a result, Adena Farms has been “placed in a precarious position and may never reach its full potential.”

Extravagant lifestyle

Separately, the suit alleges Belinda, who ran Magna from 2001 to 2004, has appropriated more than $70 million to maintain her lifestyle over the years, “routinely” asking to be reimbursed for “hundreds of thousands of dollars” of personal expenses — including parties, vacations, limousine rides and expensive meals.

That included the $10 million purchase and refurbishment of a personal office in Toronto — at a time when the Stronach group was suffering from liquidity issues, an “irresponsible” and “extravagant” move when Magna and related companies already have offices nearby in Aurora, Ont., about 50km north.

Amazon will pick two locations for its new headquarters, Wall Street Journal says

https://business.financialpost.com/technology/amazon-will-pick-two-locations-for-its-new-headquarters-wall-street-journal-says

Amazon.com Inc. will choose two locations for its new headquarters, according the Wall Street Journal, which cited an unidentified person familiar with the matter.

The e-commerce giant last year announced plans to invest US$5 billion in a second HQ and hire up to 50,000 people, setting off a frenzy of interest from cities in the U.S. and Canada. It has announced 20 finalists and is scheduled to make a final decision by the end of the year.

The company will choose two locations instead of one, according to the Wall Street Journal, which said one location lacked sufficient technology talent. Amazon may want to avoid criticism that its arrival in a new town overwhelms the area. Amazon has fuelled an economic boom in its hometown of Seattle, where it is also often blamed for traffic problems and skyrocketing housing costs that squeeze some residents out of the city.

“You could look to Seattle and see that it’s had great positive consequences, but it also probably has had some unintended ones that maybe aren’t as well received,” SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. real-estate analyst Michael Lewis said. “You can see what it’s done to the cost of living in Seattle.”


Amazon last year announced plans to invest US$5 billion in a second HQ and hire up to 50,000 people.

Patrick Semansky/AP Photo files

The Washington Post reported on Saturday that Amazon was in advanced discussions with the Washington suburb of Crystal City, Virginia, for the second headquarters. An Amazon spokesman declined to comment.

Some of contenders are close to each other and draw from the same labour pools. New York City and Newark, New Jersey, are among the finalists, as are Washington, Northern Virginia and Montgomery County, Maryland. Amazon could choose one metropolitan region and still have to negotiate with multiple states and local governments for tax incentives.

Bloomberg.com